Nintendo Cuts Outlook After Soft Demand for Wii U

parislemon:

Daisuke Wakabayashi for WSJ:

Nintendo slashed its sales outlook in the wake of disappointing holiday demand for its new Wii U videogame console, which it had been banking on to rekindle consumer excitement.

…

For the current fiscal year to March, Nintendo now expects an operating loss of ¥20 billion, compared with an earlier projection for an operating profit of ¥20 billion.

Yikes. Hate to say “I told you so” here, because I love Nintendo. But the writing has been on the wall for a while. I just don’t see how Nintendo stays in the hardware business.

Yes, yes, you could have said the same about Apple way back when. But the difference here is that it’s not about mismanagement. The world has simply changed.

We’ll see how Microsoft and Sony fare later this year, but I’m pretty bearish on stand-alone gaming consoles. Microsoft is wise to make the Xbox more of an “entertainment hub”, and less about pure gaming.

I just wonder how long it will take the very proud Nintendo to license out their games. If I were Apple, I would give them a blank check for iOS exclusives on Mario, Zelda, etc. Apple is all about making moves to sell hardware — imagine how much hardware such a move would sell.

Poor Nintendo. I do love them so, but the audience they have catered to for so many years has simply moved over other to devices and platforms.

I’ll write them up as another casualty of Apple and the creation of a new type of gaming platform that no longer needed a TV, a Gameboy, cartridges or discs.

(Reblogged from parislemon)

Is HFR the future of film?

For now, and I think for awhile, HFR takes me out of the film and is too much of a show stealer. 

A great review of The Hobbit in all 3 formats (3D HFR, 3D, and 2D) by director/DP Vincent Laforet on Gizmodo.

I agree with many of his points, but I disagree with his conclusion. I think that because HFR is so new, directors have had to throw away almost a hundred years of best practice in filmmaking. Because of this there is a lot of learning to do that presents a big opportunity to ramp up style, techniques, and technology for HFR.

http://gizmodo.com/5969817/the-hobbit-an-unexpected-masterclass-in-why-48-fps-fails

AT&T vs Verizon on the iPhone 5

I had a few questions after my last post on why I chose Verizon over AT&T for the iPhone 5. Rather than add a long winded explanation on that (already) long post, I thought I’d provide my analysis here for those who were considering a switch. There are plenty of comparison posts I’ve seen about this, but all of them tried to be a little too “even” about the options a consumer has.

I’ve been an iPhone customer since the launch in 2007 and have had every version released afterwards on AT&T. I’ve put up with quite a bit as an AT&T customer, and for a good part of the AT&T relationship, customers had no option but AT&T. That’s obviously different now, but I’ve had years of dealing with AT&T to get to this point.

First a few important things:

  • LTE is important to me, but AT&T has no LTE support in Seattle. Being in Seattle and buying an LTE phone, I want LTE now. This is a huge problem for AT&T.
  • AT&T has, every year, offered “loyalty” discounts to previous iPhone buyers to keep them on their network. It’s a sweet deal (and I’m sure it’s very costly for AT&T), but it’s kept me with them every single year. Essentially customers who bought every year on launch day would be able to upgrade with the next iPhone at new customer prices. For this discount, you optioned for another 2 year commitment with AT&T. Great deal, but not the case this year.
  • I bought an iPhone 4S, so this is important.

With AT&T not offering the same discount that they have in previous years, the economics of staying with AT&T really aren’t that sexy. I don’t know why AT&T did the pricing like they did. It essentially pushes customers to consider other carriers if they bought an iPhone 4S.

In that scenario, the price of an upgrade to a 32GB iPhone 5 was $549 (as opposed to $299 as in previous years). But the real kicker is that the early termination fee of my current AT&T contract is $215… so, if I switch to Verizon, pay $299 for a 32GB iPhone 5, and pay my ETF with AT&T, I actually come out ahead (by a small amount). With selling my old iPhone 4S it’s not such a bad deal. But it’s a good deal for iPhone users because…

The Verizon iPhone 5 is a true world phone. Unlike the AT&T iPhone, which is just GSM, the Verizon one does just about everything: (CDMA model A1429*: CDMA EV-DO Rev. A and Rev. B (800, 1900, 2100 MHz); UMTS/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA (850, 900, 1900, 2100 MHz); GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz); LTE (Bands 1, 3, 5, 13, 25)). That’s the best of all worlds.

Verizon’s LTE network is also substantially faster than AT&T’s. I have a Verizon iPad 3, and it’s simply awesome, and is faster than my home network most of the time. I can’t wait to have this on my new iPhone 5.

But honestly, it’s more about how AT&T has been as a partner that makes me want to leave them. The relationship has never been good from day 1:

  • Early iPhone usage was dog slow, as AT&T’s network couldn’t deal with the traffic. It was horrible at times for anyone who was an early iPhone user. This was the case for years.
  • When Apple finally got MMS into the iPhone, AT&T users had to wait months until AT&T was able to upgrade their network to support it, despite other phones already having MMS.
  • When Apple provided tethering and hotspots in iOS, AT&T customers had to pay additional fees.
  • When Apple announced FaceTime in iOS6, AT&T required users to switch from previous plans they had in order to take advantage of the feature.
  • AT&T still doesn’t have an LTE network in many markets, and most importantly if you are in Seattle, you will not get LTE on AT&T right now. It’s coming in 2012, but it’s not here yet.
I’m not naive: I know Verizon is the underdog with the iPhone and is trying to be as tempting as they can for customers who may switch. I know that Verizon is also painful to deal with, but I’m ready for a switch: it’s cheaper for now, and provides me with other real benefits including a better world phone and faster network.

AT&T just hasn’t been a great partner: their LTE deployment is slow, and their network isn’t as fast as Verizon. Add in the past several years of the AT&T/iPhone relationship, the attempt to control new features from Apple, and I’m ready for something new.

UPDATE: Here’s a great breakdown of which iPhone 5 is best for travel by James Duncan Davidson.
UPDATE 2: AT&T has gone live with LTE in Seattle for the iPhone 5 launch. Good move, but doesn’t change the history of my relationship with AT&T and the iPhone.

My thoughts on buying the new iPhone 5 and leaving AT&T

I see the iPhone 4/4S design as timeless… it’s both classical and modern at the same time. The design is simple and iconic, and still a benchmark for other phone manufacturers. It’s honest, functional, and sexy all at the same time. I love to look at this phone as much now as I did the first day it showed up. Much like Porsche’s 911, good design is timeless and will always be beautiful.

The new iPhone 5 is evolutionary in all the right ways. It doesn’t stray too far from the tree. In the way the new Retina MacBook Pro is a slight evolution from the unibody MacBook Pro which was an evolution from the original MacBook Pro and the PowrBook before it, Apple does improve designs, but rarely throws them out completely for the sake of a new product. The original iPhone to the iPhone 3G/3GS is a rare exception (one that looked cheap), and in this case the new iPhone 5 fixes many of the design issues the current iPhone 4 body has (ditching the glass back is a welcome change). The improvements leave you with the impression that the product is clearly “new”, but obviously an iPhone.

In contrast, the new Nokia 920 reminds me of the iPod Touch with its colorful designs, but it doesn’t look like a premium product and many of the apps I use are just not there yet. The Samsung Galaxy SIII comes off cheap and plastic looking. The HTC One X is nice looking, but I wouldn’t say it’s an inspiring design. In almost all cases, the best apps are still on iOS, although you’re seeing great apps start to make their way to Android as well (Windows Phone is still very distant here).

On the feature side, the iPhone 5 gets a larger screen while still maintaing excellent one handed use. I find that the trend of a having “larger screens for the sake of a larger screen” very frustrating for real world use. The iPhone 5 is also 20% lighter than the iPhone 4S, which is even more amazing.

Add on LTE and it’s a no brainer if you’re a heavy data user. The speed difference between 3G/HSPDA and LTE is significant enough that I get faster data speeds on my new iPad on Verizon’s LTE network than I do with Comcast at my house sometimes. Pretty amazing.

I think Apple is sitting on the sidelines with NFC for good reason. NFC does very little for most consumers today that Bluetooth 4.0, Passbook, or Wifi cannot, because the reality of using your phone + NFC for payments is simply a mess. NFC is just not there yet, but Passbook is something that can work for everyone, immediately. Today I already use the Starbucks Mobile payments app to buy coffee every morning without the need to tap my phone against something to use NFC, and I suspect Apple is fine with this tradeoff until NFC is a little further along.

Either way, the iPhone has rarely led in specs across the board. There have always been competitors with faster processors, better cameras, more memory, wireless charging, NFC, or well… you get the point. The iPhone is better as a complete product and it always has been. Pinpointing one spec from another phone as a sign that the iPhone 5 is inferior is something the tech press and spec lovers like to do, but it’s rarely anything that the average buyer cares about. The iPhone is the phone that all phones aspire to be, no matter how good the specs are.

I was disappointed most by the rear camera improvements. It’s clear here that Nokia’s 920 has great enhancements in mobile photography with PureView and image stabilization. Granted, adding a sapphire lens with multiple elements into the iPhone 5 will increase the quality of the photos, but it’s such a small step that I find it disappointing. I’m guessing Apple decided to hold back enhancements for next year’s iPhone, or simply couldn’t make the technology work with the compactness and weight of the new iPhone 5. This is perhaps the only thing I was disappointed with.

For this iteration, my wife and I will be headed to Verizon with the new iPhone 5. Leaving AT&T behind feels like the right thing to do, albeit at a slightly greater expense. This year AT&T is not providing their normal iPhone full discount renewal pricing to everyone who ordered the 4S, and they don’t offer LTE yet in Seattle. It makes the choice rather easy after living with AT&T’s bad decisions regarding everything from the original iPhone MMS introduction to using FaceTime over cellular in iOS6. I’m looking forward to joining Verizon for this round.

Let’s face it, the iPhone 5 is simply gorgeous.

5 years of iPhone

It’s easy to forget just how disruptive the iPhone was/is, so it’s fun to listen to the reactions of people during the unveiling in 2007. Things we all expect now: pinch to zoom, beautiful design, swiping, multitouch, effortless UIs, rich Internet experiences, etc… they were not the norm. I love hearing the reactions in the audience during this video. Really cool.

What’s even more amazing is how it has completely annihilated or forced an all around rethinking of mobile strategies from companies such as RIM, Nokia, Microsoft, Palm and many others. Nearly every “incumbent” at the time is now a minor player hoping to get another chance at gold.

The new leaders are now Apple, Google and Samsung.

Amazing… all in 5 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uW-E496FXg (Part 1)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vququ7x8gnw (Part 2)

A clear benefit

Harry McCracken on the Surface Tablet from Microsoft:

“Even if the Touch Cover is no comfier than an on-screen keyboard like the one on the iPad, it has one major virtue: It frees up all of the screen real estate for content.”

There are cases for the iPad that have a keyboard built in, and the Asus Transformer Prime did the same sort of thing. I’m indifferent about an external keyboard, and it has very little appeal to me. However, using the onscreen keyboard does take up half the screen, which is arguably the worst part of the typing experience on the iPad.

http://techland.time.com/2012/06/19/my-first-23-questions-about-microsofts-surface-windows-8-tablet/

Apple firing on all cylinders

On the software side, Apple has — dare I say finally — become a company that can walk and chew gum at the same time.

From Gruber.

This was a massive update today and it came off looking effortless. For the first time Apple really feels like it’s successfully executing with considerable strength against all of their businesses all at once: a myriad of new hardware updates, an introduction of a next generation laptop line with the new retina MacBook Pro, Mountain Lion, and iOS6 with new mapping software and a pretty slick digital wallet. Any one of these things would be an event just by itself for nearly any other company.

It was impressive to watch. 

http://daringfireball.net/2012/06/three_takeaways_wwdc

Windows 8 is a big (risky) bet for Microsoft

“Microsoft could emerge as a much stronger, more dynamic company, leveraging its sales leadership in PCs to get a powerful position in tablets, mobile devices, and online services.  On the other hand, if Windows 8 fails, Microsoft could break the loyalty of its customer base and turn its genteel decline into a catastrophic collapse.  The most likely outcome, of course, is a muddled middle.  But based on what I’ve seen of Windows 8 so far, I am a lot closer to the rout scenario than I expected to be.”

Excellent write up from Michael Mace on his experience with Windows 8.

It’s a long read, but his analysis is spot on and I agree with much of it. Metro is beautiful, and I enjoy using it. Windows 8 is a an incredible tablet experience, but a very poor environment for those of us using keyboards and a mouse. The legacy Windows environment is jarring and downright confusing in real world use. For all the good, there’s also a heaping spoonful of bad.

I agree with Michael on this: Upgrades are an easy sell when satisfied users can comfortably move to the next version of a product. When that is taken away, all bets are off and you’ve now opened the door to new competition.

http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/fear-and-loathing-and-windows-8.html

Android fragmentation isn't so pretty

“Over the past 6 months we’ve been logging the new devices that download OpenSignalMaps, we’ve based this study on 681,900 of these devices.”

From OpenSignalMaps: With over 3,997 unique device types identified (many were custom ROMs or obscure devices), they found over 230 different screen resolutions. In that same time, there have been four different screen resolutions on iOS.

They provide some great visualizations of the fragmentation in the post.

http://opensignalmaps.com/reports/fragmentation.php

Microsoft gets Social Search

“If Microsoft can successfully integrate Bing with data gold mines like Yelp, OpenTable, Facebook, and Twitter, it could have a real edge over Google, which has alienated companies likeTwitter and Yelp in the past.”

Microsoft is making impressive strides in design, experience, and integration. Instead of forcing users to use a whole new social network that they don’t want, Microsoft shows it understands that a search engine is about connecting to the silos that are part of your world; not replacing them.

Google’s approach with Search Plus Your World doesn’t seem to benefit users and I’ve gotten very little out of it (if ever). The only problem is that I find Bing’s search results to be subpar for the type of work that I do every day, but once this goes live I will make the switch back to see if I’m hooked. This looks like I might see some real gains.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/10/3010051/microsoft-new-bing-hands-on